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Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (March)

Session close: Gained 24.5 ticks on the session to 1.22995

Fundamentals: This is a big week for the Euro with the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. Today will probably be the quietest session on the week as there was no major data and though the government shutdown has likely weighed on the Dollar, its reaction has been fairly muted. Tomorrow brings German and Eurozone Sentiment data at 4:00 am CT. There is a EU Finance Ministers Meeting in the morning and Eurozone Consumer Confidence is due at 9:00 am CT. In yesterday’s Tradable Events this Week we discussed what we are looking for from the ECB this week. Ultimately, right now we do not see a hawkish shift in their policy statement. However, we do believe that the Minutes from this meeting released in February will lay the groundwork for such in March.

Technicals: The Euro remains very technically strong and its recent consolidation has allowed price action to relieve from overbought conditions. We began to Neutralize our Bias last week due to these overbought conditions. Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Yen (March)

Session close: Lost 33 ticks on the session to .9036

Fundamentals: The Bank of Japan will conclude their monetary policy meeting later this evening. The Yen has traded higher on the month after the BoJ announced on January 9th that they will taper longer-dated treasury issues. This is something that we had been looking for from them. In fact, we believe the BoJ will continue to make hawkish tweaks as 2018 unfolds. However, we do not believe that they are quite ready to change their policy statement just yet. As they give their Outlook Report, it will be key to see their inflation and growth expectations. Ultimately, the BoJ has a history of deflating bullish the bull camp and tonight will likely be no different. However, with CPI data due out Thursday night and our belief that it is gaining traction, lower price action should open the door for a buy opportunity.

Technicals: Although we remain long-term bullish the Yen, we are Neutralizing our Bias ahead of this meeting. As discussed in last night’s Tradable Events this Week, major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Aussie (March)

Session close: Gained 11 ticks on the session to .8010

Fundamentals: The Aussie continues to hold ground very well as stronger than expected economic data out of the region continues to make a bull case. A weaker U.S Dollar has also buoyed price action and despite a pullback in some of the metals, the Aussie did not blink. There is no major data out of Australia this week and price action will become more dependent on the US Dollar and technicals.

Technicals: Price action continues to gravitate despite overbought conditions with a 14-day RSI at 80. Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Canadian (March)

Session close: Gained 17.5 ticks to .8035

Fundamentals: The Canadian has traded very well for much of the year. Even as the Bank of Canada hiked rates last week, the currency relationship isn’t cut and dry as some of the others. NAFTA headlines continue to pose a hurdle for the currency and this week officials from Canada, Mexico and the U.S meet in Montreal. Also, the ever-present question remains will Crude Oil correct? If Crude had a healthy pullback it would put pressure on the currency. While we are very Bullish the Canadian in the longer term, there are outside factors that make it difficult to get excited about in the long-term and therefore we turn to the technicals.

Technicals: Price action settled above the .8012-.8021 pivot but still faces major three-star resistance at... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


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Technical Analysis

Cocoa (CC) Weekly MACD Trying to Positively Cross


Cocoa (CC) bounced strongly yesterday in the European afternoon only to give up most of the day's gains in the late US morning session.  Although CC is near the centre of an upchannel (on the daily chart), and vulnerable today to a slide back towards upchannel support, CC is likely to continue attracting bulls on dips.  CC is trying to consolidate last week's break above downchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart), and remains within a major bounce off the key 1800-1900 support zone.  The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am long as of yesterday at 1965 and targeting the red zone (on the daily chart) for late week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

 

Cocoa (ICE CC Mar18) Weekly/Daily/4hr

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on Wheat, Corn

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (January 23)


MARKET

The Chinese stocks kept on bullish trend, making 1.29% rise in Shanghai Composite. Financial and real estate shares jumped and helped the composite refreshed a new high. The optimistic sentiment spread over and led hot money flow into undervalued sector. Bank and Real Estate sector led the gains; while Steel and Telecommunication sector led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 521.1 bn, up 0.83% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3504.34

3546.50

1.29

282.09

Shenzhen

11514.56

11555.25

0.37

239.37

CSI 300

4346.89

4382.61

1.06

257.11

ChiNext

1767.33

1767.83

-0.02

58.58

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Bank

603323

Real Estate

000537-

Downward-leading

Steel

600381

Telecommunication

300136

 

NEWS

*Shanxi to Close Coal Mines With Less Than 600,000 Tons of Annual Capacity. Coal-rich Shanxi province said it plans to retire coal mines with annual production capacities less than 600,000 tons by the end of 2020, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. It also said it will also encourage the development of coal companies producing more than 3 million tons per year and encourage firms with less capacity to merge. (Caixin)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


16068




Macro

US Pass Stop-Gap Funding Bill; BoJ MonPol Unchanged


Morning Briefing January 23rd 2018


Although the European calendar is light in releases, the two scheduled data points are both likely to be closely watched by the markets.

At 0930GMT, the UK's December public finance numbers will cross the wires and we will learn how government borrowing fared in the ninth month of the fiscal year.

The MNI median expectation, taken from a poll of analysts, looks for a stg5.0bn balance in borrowing excluding public sector banks in December, in line with the result in December 2016 but below the stg8.7bn outturn in November.

At 1000GMT, the German January ZEW survey will be published, giving an update on how economists and financial analysts view the German economy. Expectations are seen nudging up to 17.8 from the 17.4 recorded in December.

Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1330GMT, with the release of the Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index.

At 1355GMT, the latest Redbook Retail Sales Index will cross the wires, with the Richmond Fed Survey and the BLS State Employment data due at 1500GMT.

Also due at 1500GMT ARE the latest European Consumer confidence indicators from the European Commission.

Late US data sees the publication of preliminary Treasury Allotments at 2000GMT.

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans will give the introductory remarks for Michael Moskow during the "Chicago Council on Global Affairs Conference: The Future of Monetary Policy: Embracing the Unconventional" in Chicago, starting at 2330GMT.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Key levels of markets in the 2nd half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 up 303.02 points at 24118.99 - ASX 200 up 45.189 points at 6037.1 - Shanghai Comp. up 22.281 points at 3523.643- JGB 10-Yr future up 9 ticks at 150.45, JGB 10-Yr yield down 0.5bp at 0.074% - Aussie 3-Yr future up 1.5 ticks at 97.735, yield down 1.6bp at 2.213% - Aussie 10-Yr future up 2.5 ticks at 97.155, yield down 2.5bp at 2.837% - US 10-Yr future up 4 ticks at 122.07, US 10-Yr yield down 0.55bp at 2.6445%

US TSYS SUMMARY: Tsys finish weaker by the close, off session lows. Rates pared midday gains on as Senate voted to pass shutdown resolution to House, expected to vote today, pundits expect US Gov back to business -- at least until Feb 8.

US: Limited reaction to reports that Congress passes the bill to end the government shutdown after 3 days and sends the legislation to US President Trump. - USD crosses slightly bid after the news but within recent ranges. TYH8 opens Asia at 122.05+, last at 122.05 up 2 ticks from the US close. - The bill will fund the government through to February 8, meaning this whole saga could repeat itself in around 2.5 weeks time.

JAPAN: Diverging reactions from the yen and JGB's post rate decision from the BoJ. Market has seen upbeat assessment of the economy as well as slightly tweaked language on inflation as bullish for the yen. Statement says inflation expectations are broadly unchanged, previous statement said inflation expectations were in a weakening phase. - However relief at unchanged policy measures from the BoJ has seen a bid in JGB's. In particular the BoJ maintained the monetary base target at Y80tln annually. The BoJ's actual purchases were around Y57tln in 2017. The decision to maintain the official Y80tln target gives traction to the theory that the quantity of JGB purchases is an endogenous variable under Yield Curve Control, the pace of which could could slow or speed up depending on trends in the economy and markets. - JGB futures last up 9 ticks at 150.46 from 150.40 at the lunch break.

STOCKS: Stocks are higher in Asia-Pac on Tuesday, a positive lead from the US translating into broad risk on trade in Asia. In Japan the Nikkei 225 is up 216 points at 24,034, the index gapped higher at the open with USD/JPY some 20 pips higher than the Asia close on Monday. Futures dipped during the lunch break as the BoJ kept policy on hold but upgraded language on inflation expectations, this saw a spike higher in yen but equities had more or less shrugged off any dip at the reopen of the Nikkei 225 at the lunch break. - US futures in the green as the US pass a stop gap funding bill to reopen the government, the bill makes provisions until Feb 8.

OIL: Oil is higher in Asia-Pac trade, WTI last up $0.39 at $63.96, Brent is up $0.35 at $69.38. At these levels WTI is still slightly below the intra-day high hit on Monday at $64.13. Trade on Monday was volatile with the price fluctuating based on moves in the dollar. After rising above the $64/bbl handle WTI saw some profit taking with the move lower exacerbated by news of a restart in several Libyan oil fields after closures due to protests

FOREX: US Congress signed a temporary funding bill to reopen the government after a 3 day shutdown late on Monday night, markets took the announcement in stride -the US dollar saw a very slight bid early in Asia that was quickly reversed to take the dollar index back towards 3-Year lows. Cable saw a brief a pop above1.40, the highest since Brexit induced sell off (23-24 June 2016). There was a story doing the rounds that the UK had already agreed a Norway style agreement during transition. The pop higher was shortlived and GBP/USD now trades down 3 pips at 1.3984. - Aussie moved higher early in the session, touching 0.8030 after some stops tripped above 0.8020. Iron ore weakness put a dampener on Aussie, the move lower was exacerbated by US trade tariffs imposed on solar/washing machine imports. The announcement was met with disapproval from China who said it would hurt global trade and they would safeguard their own interests. - Yen rose after the BoJ kept policy unchanged, but made a slightly hawkish nod towards stronger inflation expectations. USD/JPY last down 11 pips at 110.80 after touching 110.53.

Technical Analysis


BUND: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 160.97

*RES 4: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*RES 3: 161.23 21-DMA
*RES 2: 160.97 Highs Jan 16 & 17
*RES 1: 160.85 High Jan 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.58

*SUP 1: 160.30 Lows Jan 15 & 18
*SUP 2: 160.11 2018 Low Jan 12
*SUP 3: 160.08 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28    

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on the recovery from 2018 lows saw the significance of 160.97 confirmed with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and shift focus to 161.55-162.37 where key DMAs are situated. Above 162.37 is needed to target 163.78. The sell-off reconfirmed immediate focus back on 160.11 2018 lows and overall focus on 158.47-159.78 where the 200-WMA is noted. Closes below the 200-WMA were last seen briefly in 2011.
 

EUROSTOXX50: Bulls Focused On 3708.82-3714.26

*RES 4: 3714.26 Monthly High July 20 2015
*RES 3: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1
*RES 2: 3679.65 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3665.28

*SUP 1: 3638.91 Hourly support Jan 19
*SUP 2: 3628.13 High Jan 18 now support
*SUP 3: 3603.30 Low Jan 17
*SUP 4: 3586.87 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The close above the much talked about 3642.10 resistance adds to bullish confidence and shifted focus to 3708.82-3714.26 where 2017 and monthly highs are situated. Bears look for a close below 3628.13 to ease bullish pressure and see focus back on layers of support 3546.81-3586.87 where the 55-DMA is located. A close below the 200-DMA is needed to confirm focus on 3467.78 2018 lows.

Eurex Futures Market Close


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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


16067




Futures

Midday Market Minute


Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


16064




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Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in the material posted are not suitable for all investors. The material posted does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before making any investment or trade, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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