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Stocks

The Hammerstone Report - Early Look


Thursday, April 25, 2019

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

DJ Industrials

-113.00

0.43%

26,428

S&P 500

-1.50

0.06%

2,929

Nasdaq

9.50

0.11%

7,856

 

 

U.S. stock futures are now lower, as Dow futures tumble after Dow component MMM reported a miss on the top and bottom line and drastically cut its outlook for the year (sending shares down over 7%). Overnight however, tech stocks had rallied behind better earnings from market leaders Facebook and Microsoft along with a handful of other names. U.S. stocks and bonds have been mostly climbing in tandem over the last 2-weeks, with stocks touching their best levels of all-time (S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp new highs this week), while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last at 2.52% Wednesday, its lowest in about two weeks, and back down near 2019 lows. Stocks have been buoyed since the start of the year after the Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, said it was holding off on further rate hikes after delivering four increases in 2019.

 

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 107 points to settle at 22,307, the Shanghai Index dropped over -77 points (2.4%) to settle at 3,123, and the Hang Seng Index declined -256 points to finish at 29,549. In Europe, the German DAX is little changed at 12,310, while the FTSE 100 is down around -20 points at7,450. Germany’s 10-year government bond yields turned negative following a string of weak economic data in the country. European banks active after BCS and UBS report quarterly results and Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank officially cancel all merger plans.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

The S&P 500 Index dropped -6.43 points, or 0.22%, to 2,927.25

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -59.34 points, or 0.22%, to 26,597.05

The Nasdaq Composite slipped -18.81 points, or 0.23%, to 8,102.01

The Russell 2000 Index advanced 3.04 points, or 0.19% to 1,588.13

 

Events Calendar for Today

8:30 AM EST       Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 200K

8:30 AM EST       Continuing Claims…est. 1.682M

8:30 AM EST       Durable Goods Orders, Mar-P…est. 0.8%

8:30 AM EST       Durable Goods Ex-transportation, Mar-P…est. 0.2%

9:45 AM EST       Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index…prior 60.3

10:30 AM EST     Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

11:00 AM EST     Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, for April…est. 8

 

Earnings Calendar:

Earnings Before the Open: ABBV, ADS, ALLE, BCS, BAX, BAYRY, BC, BMY, BWA, CLF, CMCSA, DHI, FCX, HBAN, HES, HP, HSY, IP, ITW, IVZ, LAZ, MAS, MMM, NEM, ROK, ROP, RTN, UBS, UPS, VC, VLO, VLY, WWE

Earnings After the Close: AFL, ALK, ASB, ATEN, COF, DFS, EMN, F, FTI, FTV, ILMN, INTC, JNPR, MAT, MHK, PFG, PFPT, PRO, RSG, SBUX, SGEN, SIVB, VRSN

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

WTI Crude

0.30

66.19

Brent

0.82

75.39

Gold

1.75

1,277.50

EUR/USD

-0.0019

1.1136

JPY/USD

-0.34

111.85

10-Year Note

-0.004

2.523%

 

 

World News

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep rates unchanged and changed its forward guidance to indicate rates will remain very low through next spring. The bank’s guidance indicated modest economic weakness to come

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May once again avoided a personal defeat when a committee of backbench Conservative Party MPs decided not to pursue rule changes that would allow a leadership challenge before December

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

Chipotle (CMG) Q1 adjusted EPS $3.40/$1.3B vs. est. $3.01/$1.26B; 1Q comparable sales +9.9% vs. estimate +7.3%; sees FY new restaurants 140 to 155; Q1 restaurant level operating margin 21% vs. 19.5% YoY; sees 2019 mid to high single digit comp sales growth

Tesla (TSLA) Q1 EPS loss ($2.90)/$4.54B vs. est. loss ($1.30)/$4.84B; 1Q adj. automotive gross margin +20.3% vs. Bloomberg est. +17%; Q1 capital ex $279.9M; Reaffirms Guidance of 360k to 400k Deliveries in 2019; says may produce 500k vehicles globally in 2019

Supermarket chains Sainsbury’s and the Walmart Inc.-(WMT) owned ASDA decided to drop their merger plans after the U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority decided to block the deal.

Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q1 adjusted EPS 63c/$265.4M vs. est. 38c/$248.91M

Fortune Brands (FBHS) shares rose 8%; Q1 EPS 63c/$1.33B vs. est. 59c/$1.31B; backs FY’19 EPS ex-items view of $3.53-$3.77 (est. $3.63) as outlook continues to be based on a U.S. home products market growth assumption of 2%-4% and an assumption of 2%-4% growth for the total global market

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Q1 EPS $4.05/$2.41B vs. est. $4.05/$2.44B; 1Q gross profit margin 53.1%; Q1 comparable sales +3.2%, estimate +4.1%; reaffirms year comp sales view; sees 2Q EPS $4.55-$4.65 vs. estimate $4.69

Boston Beer (SAM) Q1 EPS $2.02/$251.7M vs. est. $1.01/$234.96M; sees FY EPS $8.00 to $9.00 vs. est. $8.64; sees FY gross margin 50% to 52%

Spirit Airlines (SAVE) Q1 EPS 84c/$855.8M vs. est. 84c/$865.13M; Q1 total revenue per available seat mile +4.1%

 

Energy

CVR Energy (CVI) Q1 EPS $1.00/$1.49B vs. est. 51c/$1.52B

Helmerich & Payne (HPQ) Q2 EPS 55c/$720.87M vs. est. 38c/$711.49M; 2Q offshore rig expense per day $25,941 vs. $24,079 y/y, 2Q offshore rig utilization 75% vs. 63% y/y, 2Q U.S. rig utilization 67% vs. 59% y/y

Oil States (OIS) Q1 EPS loss (24c)/$2506M vs. est. loss (28c)/$245.2M

QEP Resources (QEP) Q1 adjusted EPS 15c vs. est. loss (1c); boosted its production outlook for the full year to 28.5 to 30.3 mmboe, saw 28 to 29.9; 1Q lease operating expenses $51.5M

 

Financials

Visa (V) reports Q2 EPS $1.31/$5.5B vs. est. $1.24/$5.46B; Q2 payments volume up 8% and reports Q2 processed transactions up 11%; backs FY’19 net revenue growth view low double digits (est. $22.78B) and sees FY’19 effective tax rate roughly 20%; sees FY’19 class A EPS growth high-end of mid-teens range on an adjusted, non-GAAP nominal dollar basis

PayPal (PYPL) Q1 EPS 78c/$4.13B vs. est. 68c/$4.13B; now have 277 million customer accounts, including 22 million merchant accounts and over 40 million active Venmo accounts; reports 9.3M net new active accounts in Q1, versus an increase of 8.1M n Q1 2018, up 15%. Reports 2.8B payment transactions, up 28%; sees 2019 EPS $2.94-$3.01 vs. est. $2.88

Merger talks between German banks Deutsche Bank AG (DB) and Commerzbank AG officially ended, with the latter saying the combination would not be in the interests of stakeholders. “We have concluded that this transaction would not have created sufficient benefits to offset the additional execution risks, restructuring costs and capital requirements”

Ameriprise (AMP) Q1 operating EPS $3.75/$3.12B vs. est. $3.63/$3.03B; assets under management $459 billion; 1Q adjusted ROE +36.4%

AGNC Investment (AGNC) Q1 adjusted EPS 52c vs. est. 56c; reports Q1 NII $164M; $17.23 tangible net book value per common share as of March 31

Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Q1 operating EPS $1.05 vs. est. 88c; 1Q net premiums written $1.38 billion and 1Q book value per share $52.88

Essex (ESS) reports Q1 core FFO $3.23 vs. consensus $3.19; raises FY’19 core FFO view to $12.90-$13.25 from $12.83-$13.23

 

Healthcare

Align Technology (ALGN) Q1 EPS 89c/$548.97M vs. est. 83c/$530.4M; Q1 revenues and Invisalign volumes were up 25.6% and 28.3% year-over-year, respectively, reflecting continued strong growth across all geographies and customer channels

Varian Medical (VAR) Q2 adjusted EPS $1.05/$779M vs. est. $1.15/$776.28M; backs FY’19 adjusted EPS view $4.60 -$4.75 vs. est. $4.74; raises FY’19 revenue view to $3.09B-$3.18B from $3.06B-$3.15B (est. $3.13B)

 

Industrials & Materials

3M (MMM) Q1 adjusted EPS $2.23/$7.86B fell short of the $2.48/$8.06B estimates; cuts FY EPS $9.25-$9.75 down from prior view of $10.45-$10.90 and announced a realignment from five to four business groups; expects a reduction of 2,000 jobs worldwide

Echo Global (ECHO) Q1 EPS 38c/$538.1M vs. est. 36c/$550.49M; sees Q2 revenue $560M-$600M below consensus $625.31M

Forward Air (FWRD) Q1 EPS 64c/$321.47M vs. est. 62c/$323.58M; sees Q2 EPS 81c-85c on rev growth 4%-8% vs. est. 88c/$1.43B

Graco (GGG) Q1 adjusted EPS 47c/$404.9M vs. est. 49c/$415.59M; backs FY’19 organic sales growth view of mid-single-digits

Landstar System (LSTR) Q1 EPS $1.58/$1.03B vs. est. $1.52/$1.05B; sees Q2 EPS $1.56-$1.62 on revs $1.075B-$1.125B vs. est. $1.61/$1.18B

Trinity Industries (TRN) Q1 EPS 24c/$604.8M vs. est. 20c/$674.92M; backs FY19 EPS view of $1.15-$1.35 vs. est. $1.31; also backs its Leasing Group expects a net lease fleet investment of between $1.2B and $1.4B in 2019

Packaging Corp. (PKG) Q1 adjusted EPS $1.98/$1.73B vs. est. $1.96/$1.77B

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

Facebook (FB) shares rose 9%; Q1 EPS $1.89/$15.08B vs. est. $1.63/$14.97B; reports Q1 daily active users of 1.56B on average for March 2019, an increase of 8% year-over-year; reports monthly active users of 2.38B as of March 31, 2019, an increase of 8% YoY; estimates loss from FTC inquiry at $3.0B-$5.0B; cuts FY’19 CapEx view to $17B-$19B from $18B-$20B

Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 EPS $1.14/$30.6B vs. est. $1.00/$29.84B; 3Q Intelligent Cloud revenue $9.65B, Q3 More Personal Computing revenue $10.68B, 3Q Productivity and Business Processes revenue $10.24B

Citrix (CTXS) Q1 EPS $1.27/$719.1M vs. est. $1.17/$708.32M; sees Q2 EPS $1.30-$1.35 on revs $765M-$775M vs. est. $1.42/$766.45M

Lam Research (LRCX) shares rose 4%; Q3 EPS $3.70/$2.44B vs. est. $3.38/$2.4B; sees Q4 EPS $3.31 +/- 20c and revs $2.35B +/- $150M vs. est. $3.33/$2.34B; sees 4Q adjusted gross margin 44.5% to 46.5% after Q3 GM 45.1%

F5 Networks (FFIV) Q2 EPS 2.57/$544.9M vs. est. $2.54/$547.15M;

Knowles (KN) Q1 EPS 13c/$179.8M vs. est. 12c/$175M; sees Q2 EPS 17c-21c on revs $185M-$205M vs. est. 18c/$190.6M

Netgear (NTGR) shares fell -9%; Q1 EPS 39c/$249.1M vs. est. 49c/$244.3M; said due to reduced service provider shipments, sees Q2 revs $215M-$230M, below est. $256.1M; sees Q2 GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 0.0% to 1.0%

PTC (PTC) shares fell -9%; Q2 adjusted EPS 38c/$315.7M vs. est. 35c/$314.01M; sees 3Q revenue EPS 20c-30c on revs $288M-$303M vs. est. 40c/$331.5M; sees FY revenue $1.25B-$1.28B vs. est. $1.33B and sees FY adjusted EPS $1.45-$1.70 vs. est. $1.79

ServiceNow (NOW) Q1 EPS 67c/$788.9M vs. est. 54c/$766.22M; 1Q billings growth +24% and 1Q free cash flow $313.7M; sees yr adj. Subscription revenues $3.28B-$3.3B; sees Q2 subscription revenue $793M-$798M, up 35%-36% from last year

Xilinx (XLNX) shares fell -10%; Q4 adjusted EPS 94c/$828M vs. est. 93c/$824.55M; sees Q1 revenue $835M-$865M vs. est. $832.02M; sees Q1 adjusted gross margin ~ 66%; announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire privately held Solarflare Communications

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The content of this post was created by the Hammerstone Group. The Hammerstone Institutional Forum, a chat-based platform for traders, provides subscribers with up-to-the-minute breaking news headlines and instant analysis that drive the market. For more information please visit www.thehammerstone.com. For more information on the stocks mentioned in the Hammerstone Recap, please contact Brian Ducey at brian@thehammerstone.com.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.

There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from the Hammerstone Group and is being posted with the Hammerstone Group's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or the Hammerstone Group and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23702




Stocks

Finimize - Facebook: So Scandalous


What's going on?

Facebook reported first-quarter revenue that was slightly higher than expected on Wednesday, helping the social media giant’s stock rise 8%.

What does this mean?

Sure, things are getting tougher for Facebook: costs are still rising (up 80% on the same time last year), as the company works to allay privacy concerns and plug data leaks. But that doesn’t seem to be turning people off Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp: monthly active users last quarter were up 8% on last year. And that scroller derby helped rake in more money from advertisers seeking to reach users – particularly Generation Z – across their timelines and Stories. Instagram has proved an especially lucrative cash cow for Facebook since its founders unfriended the company last year.

Why should I care?

For markets: With great power can come great backlash.


According to the Wall Street Journal, half of American companies resemble Facebook in having their CEO and chairman be one and the same person. That can streamline decision making – but if Facebook and its money-making ads keep going dark or flirting with record fines for inadequate data protection (Facebook put aside $3 billion last quarter just in case, meaning it made less profit than anticipated), disgruntled investors may try to seize the Iron Throne. Indeed, a group of shareholders is currently pushing to reduce the influence of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s stake in the company – and to remove him as chairman, à la Tesla.



The bigger picture: Just don’t slip…


Most companies have beaten investors’ perhaps too-pessimistic outlooks for first-quarter earnings so far, helping push major stock markets to new record highs. Even much-maligned social media rival Snap Inc. posted higher-than-expected quarterly revenue late on Tuesday. But for those falling short of expectations, the punishment is severe: stocks of those companies have dropped 4% on average in the days surrounding their updates, according to FactSet – more than usual for the last five years.

--

Originally Posted on April 24, 2019

Finimize is the daily email that everyone in finance secretly reads. It's the perfect 3-minute cheat sheet on what happened in the financial news: it's free and without any jargon or as Forbes puts it “Super digestible and well-written. A+”. All content is created by the Finimize team, formerly @Goldman Sachs, Barclays, etc. Join more than 200,000 daily readers.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Finimize and is being posted with Finimize's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Finimize and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23704




Futures

Blue Line Futures - Morning Express


E-mini S&P (June)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2930.75, down 7.25

Fundamentals: Tech behemoths Microsoft +4.5% and Facebook +9% surged overnight after strong earnings reports. They have single-handedly kept a bid under the broader market, and while the NQ boasts another record high, the S&P is flirting with unchanged. The global landscape speaks a different tone; China’s Shanghai Composite finished down 2.43% today and Hong Kong shed 1%. The Shanghai Composite is now down 4.5% on the week, after China eluded to pulling back the fresh stimulus measures that became a bellwether in driving 24% gains in the first quarter and as much as 33% on the year through April’s high. The MSCI Emerging Market Index, a futures contract that we are active in trading with clients, is down 1.8% on the week and Copper, which we have pounded the tape as a fade-the-rallies trade, is at the lowest level in over a month after losing another 1% today. Again, the global landscape paints a different picture.

The U.S. Dollar Index is in breakout territory, hitting the 98.00 mark for the first time since May 2017. The U.S. data has certainly not been anything to write home about, and the Federal Reserve has become dovish this year. More importantly though, less dovish than their counterparts. However, it is their accommodative policy in and of itself that has given the green light to U.S. stocks; those same stocks whose earnings expectations were lowered. But the fact that their expectations were lowered doesn’t matter anymore, what matters is that they are beating them and U.S. stocks at record highs are the most attractive bet out there. (Please understand that this is not a solicitation to hold unfettered leveraged longs. In fact, we have made great short trades with and for clients this week)

Speaking of earnings, 3M is down 8% premarket after missing this morning. Comcast and UPS are also in the red. It is after the close that matters most today though; Amazon, Intel and Starbucks report. On the economic calendar, we look to a pivotal read on U.S. Durable Goods, which is accompanied by weekly Jobless Claims at 7:30 am CT.

Technicals: S&P futures have yet to set a new all-time high although the NQ has set a fresh record in four of the last five sessions. The S&P has remained contained below our rare major four-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

 

Crude Oil (June)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 65.89, down 0.41

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s domestic EIA inventory data underwhelmed bullish participants, and price action consolidated lower in a healthy manner. Crude Oil is bouncing back this morning and Brent ripped to a new high, as the broader picture remains upbeat with Iranian supply being stripped from the market by May 2nd. U.S. Dollar strength coupled with global market weakness (China reducing stimulus measures) is certainly holding back what could have already been even higher prices. Durable Goods due at 7:30 am CT brings two sides of the coin; a strong number alludes to firming demand and activity, whereas a miss is negative but should weaken the Dollar. Traders must keep an ear to the ground on the number of developing geopolitical topics ranging from OPEC production and their desire to fill Iran’s void (jawboning from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nigeria and others), Libya and U.S.-China trade.

Technicals: Price action is bouncing back from a new swing low overnight of 65.54. Ultimately, this move held first key support in a very constructive manner, and as Brent rips to a new swing high, WTI is waiting for the onset of U.S. hours in order to confirm the strength. Major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Gold (June)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1279.4, up 6.2

Fundamentals: Gold is holding ground ahead of a crucial Durable Goods read but previous lows, now resistance, is keeping a lid on this rally attempt. Overall, it is impressive to see Gold hold such ground while the U.S. Dollar is broadly gaining against its counterparts, and the Dollar Index is trading to the highest level since May 2017. U.S. Treasuries have had a constructive week despite the additional supply hitting the market. Economic weakness from abroad, such as German Climate data yesterday, lit a fire under Bund prices, which correlated into such domestically and thus Gold. Look to today’s data to confirm or deny stabilizing prices in the metal today.

Technicals: Price action is out above our pivot level at 1273-1275.5, and this is constructive. However, resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

--

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23703




Technical Analysis

FIBOCALL - The Morning FIBOCALL for 4/25/19


See how many are now long-term overbought

SPX-cash (Long-term view)
The SPX has struggled to close above the 9/21/18 high @ 2940.91 with our overshoot level @ 3081 above.
Our first short-term support @ 2901
The rising 20-DMA @ 2884, 50-DMA @ 2828.53 and 200-DMA @ 2769.14
Long-term overbought is back in place


S&P futures: (Short-term view)
Top tick @ 2939.75 on 4/23 and 4/24 with the 9/21/18 high @ 2961.25 above.
Our first short-term support @ 2904.25

The 20-DMA @ 2894 and ST bullish as it continues to HOLD.
Long-term overbought is back in place


IWM
Trading above the 50-DMA @ 155.25, the 20-DMA @ 155.81 and the 200-DMA @ 155.99

The 3/4/19 high @ 158.77, the 2/25/19 high @ 159.50 are all above
First short-term support @ 156.26

No long-term signal here at this time

CRUDE
First very short-term support @ 64.62
A close below 64.62 to make some short-term sales.

The rising 20-DMA @ 63.55 with the 200-DMA @ 61.15

The LT .764 level @ 68.75 is next resistance
LT overbought is back in place

 

XLF
Top tick @ 27.52 yesterday with the LT .764 level @ 28.37 above.
First short-term support @ 26.94, a close below to make some sales.

20-DMA @ 26.67, 200-DMA 26.61, and the 50-DMA @ 26.44 are below.
No long-term signal here at this time

QQQ

(New 52-week high) yesterday @ 190.71 and poised to trade higher again today

I will advise our first ST support level once the short-term top can be determined.
Our overshoot level @ 197.93 is above
The rising 20-DMA @ 184.67 is below
LT overbought is in place

 

10-year note yields
Trading above the 20-DMA @ 2.519 as our very ST selling zone @ 2.562-2.607 is above.

The falling 50-DMA @ 2.578 is inside the zone

NOT looking for a MAJOR move higher at this time.
Longer term view: Our Selling zone @ 2.803-2.906 with the declining 200-DMA @ 2.842

No new LT signal at this time

IBB
2 ways to be a buyer:

Our LT bounce zone @ 102.63-99.41 is below
I would look to own some inside the zone
Our first ST bounce level @ 105.72 some you can own now and
add with a close back above.
ST selling zone @ 108.95-110.41

LT oversold is very close

 

FIBOCRYPTOCALL

XBTUSD (Bitcoin)
The Bitcoin Permabulls will continue to shout from the mountain tops this week.
Please watch for the weekly close as the 50-WMA @ 5469 is being tested THIS WEEK

with the February 2018 low @ 5922 as a BIG level to clear

A close below the sharply rising 20-DMA @ 5093 to press sales.

 

SPX-cash daily chart

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A member of the Market Technicians Association since 1987, Gary Berman provides institutional clients Technical Analysis Research. He is also an author for the REAL MONEY PRO section of TheStreet.com and TalkMarkets.

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Technical Analysis

Bespoke Weather Services - Natural Gas Prices Remain Stuck In Shoulder Season Rut For Another Day


Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 5:12PM

After an early rally that saw May natural gas prices up as much as 3 cents on the day, much of the rally reversed, with the May contract finishing up only 7 ticks on the day.

natural gas commodity weather

Today, cash prices were the culprit in triggering widespread selling, though Wednesday's cash prints were a little firmer.

natural gas commodity weather

So, if not cash, then what halted Wednesday's attempt at a rally? It was continued pressure on later-dated contracts, from summer through next winter, which then bled into the front of the curve.

natural gas commodity weather

The relentless selling in the later-dated contracts has not allowed us to have a true "Spring rally", which has historically been common, making this year a big outlier in recent seasonality trends.

natural gas commodity weather

On the weather side, we have seen some colder adjustments in the northern half of the nation, along with some warmer changes in the southern U.S.

natural gas commodity weather

This pattern leads to more heating demand in the north, and some early season cooling demand in the south, boosting GWDD levels back closer to normal for this time of year.

natural gas commodity weather

For the first time in several weeks, we also now finally see forecast GWDDs (weather demand) higher than the same dates from last year.

natural gas commodity weather

Is all of this enough to finally spark a rally in natural gas prices, or are the robust supply levels too much to overcome? Sign up for a 10-day free trial here and take a look at what our research shows regarding the search for what comes next in the natural gas world.Try out a 10-day free trial here

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Bespoke Weather Services is the premier integrated weather forecasting service for natural gas traders, offering actionable trade ideas and market risk profiles from live weather modeling and pricing data to identify opportunities along the natural gas strip.  We combine fundamental supply/demand and technical analysis with our weather forecasts to provide numerous research reports through the day alerting traders to what we see driving price action and how risk appears skewed moving forward.  We offer market sentiment and analysis on an intraday, daily, weekly, and seasonal basis, providing research packages for both active short-term traders and longer-term investors and portfolio managers.

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Disclaimer: Bespoke Weather Services, LLC believes all information contained in this note to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  None of the information in this post or any opinions expressed constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Bespoke Weather Services and is being posted with Bespoke Weather Services's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Bespoke Weather Services and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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